Wednesday, 27 January 2010

What Green Shoots?

Yesterday's official figures indicated that the UK economy was finally out of recession.  Growth was at 0.1% but could be revised down once the final are released by the National Statistics Office next month.  If the 'normal' revision takes place then we will find ourselves at zero growth or back into the negative.

Am I the only one who sees the so called growth as a normal increase in spending due to the lead up to Christmas and Post Christmas sales?  The CBI have been saying businesses had a bumper Christmas compared to last year not because sales we up but because there was less competition due to the number of high profile business such as Woolworths which had ceased trading.

Unemployment figures last week showed a decrease by seven thousand people.  Again it is normal for businesses to take on temporary staff to cope with Christmas demand.  Are we likely to see unemployment go up again when the next set of figures are released?

I hesitate to say we are out of recession and I expect worse to come as I see no evidence of green shoots just a lot of politicians wearing green coloured glasses.